Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
